The main argument of “Prisoner of Geography” as well its sequel “The Power of Geography” (both from Tim Marshall) is that countries seek to expand up to the geographical boundaries optimal for their defense – mountain ranges, lake, deserts, or small plain corridors. Beyond the boundaries of territorial sovereignty, countries aim at projecting power to secure trade and create leverage (“sphere of influence”). Relationships between countries are power relationship, and the one with the upper hand sets the conditions.
Its through this prism that both books look at the history and geography of countries like Russia, China, USA, India, but also regions like Western Europe, the Arctic, the Sahel, or even Space. The books are really good explanation of geopolitics and give an excellent overview of the current state of affair worldwide.
Geopolitics evolve on the timescale of decades or centuries. What may seem stable in one lifetime may still be moving, albeit slowly. Countries take decades for instance to build state capacity or modernize military. A bit like with plate tectonics and earthquakes, the tectonics of power projection results occasionally in conflict and war.
Technology is also a slow-moving process that influences geopolitics. Some geographical barriers like mountains or distance are changing in relevance as technology progresses. Natural resources defined by the geography, too.
Ethnic groups do not always align with nation-states. Maybe alignment is actually the exception to the norm. When it comes to geopolitics, security will always win over human rights. Ethnicity is instrumented in all kinds of ways: minorities in foreign countries are used to weaken the sovereignty of the foreign country; in the home country, minorities are kept under checked (if not oppressed or worse) to prevent separatist movement. Trade and migration can be instrumented to influence the ethnic mix over the long time. We see this instrumentation of ethnicity very well with the war in Ukraine.
Not all nations in the world are equally stable. Some nations have existed from long time and the sense of belonging is strong (e.g. China Han). Some are the result of recent conflicts and still trying to figure out who they are. The power balance is changing, and 50 years from now, we can expect the world to be quite different.
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